Anyways, all this to say: when I got back, I couldn't parry worth a **** anymore! So I practiced, and I still can't get close to where I was. I'm getting relatively comfortable against ultra-greatswords again, and anything else if they chain more than 2 attacks. But my overall success rate is nowhere near what it used to be, I parry spam almost an embarrassing amount, and my prediction parries are sporadically successful. But all this has made me remember a great parry technique and one I'm relying on more now, the point of this thread: parry baiting!
(By the way, I never use a shield. So all this info is especially useful for people who PvP with no shield.) The point is to force your enemy to put himself into position to get parried. The beauty is that you don't need to predict so much, since you're manipulating your opponent into doing what you want. Also, it's a lot of fun to pull off! So all you gotta do, is throw around empty attacks (attacks that aren't meant to hit, because you're too far, or you'll cancel them, etc.) your opponent is likely to want to punish. You know them: casting a spell, using a bow, using a lunging attack, etc. I've been using the lunging attack a lot lately, and it's especially good with the PGS.
For the lunging bait, all you have to do is get familiar with the optimal range: not so close that your opponent will be able to backstab you, but not so far that he won't want to come in to punish you. Once you know the sweet spot, all you have to do is hit that forward-R2, and immediately L2 when they come in to punish your whiff!
I'm sure many of you knew this technique, but I just wanted to remind you all of its effectiveness, and also teach it to those of you trying to learn PvP parrying and having a hard time pull it off. Have fun parry baiting, everyone!